WORLD CUP 2026
KONCAT DASHBOARD
Updated Jun 27, 2026
Built by kenni_bo
Matches Played
65
Group stage
Teams Remaining
32
≥ 0.5% win prob
Final Date
Jul 19
MetLife Stadium, NJ
Simulations
10k
via kalshi fanduel june24 2026
Crazy stat of the day
Ousmane Dembélé scored a first-half hat trick for France against Norway — all three before the break.
Minutes: 7', 20', 32' — the cleanest kind of hat trick.
TODAY'S MATCHES
2026-06-28Los Angeles
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
Top 10 teams · 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WIN PROBABILITY
Path difficulty = avg Elo of potential opponents in team's bracket half
| # | Team | Elo | Model% | Divergence | Market% | Path | Squad € | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 1776 | 20.8% | -0.9% | 21.7% | — | €1.8B | — |
| 2 | England | 1755 | 16.5% | +2.2% | 14.3% | — | €1.8B | — |
| 3 | Spain | 1733 | 13.7% | -1.7% | 15.4% | — | €1.5B | — |
| 4 | Argentina | 1657 | 6.3% | -7.0% | 13.3% | — | €1B | MARKET ↓ |
| 5 | Brazil | 1654 | 5.7% | -1.4% | 7.1% | 🟢 Easy Avg potential opponent Elo: 1555 Avoids Germany and South Africa until the Final — favorable bracket draw | €1.4B | — |
| 6 | Germany | 1646 | 4.9% | -2.2% | 7.1% | 🟡 Medium Avg potential opponent Elo: 1568 Could face South Africa and Morocco before the Final | €1.2B | — |
| 7 | Morocco | 1636 | 4.6% | +1.8% | 2.8% | 🟡 Medium Avg potential opponent Elo: 1569 Could face Germany and USA before the Final | €611M | — |
| 8 | Portugal | 1627 | 4.1% | -5.0% | 9.1% | — | €1.2B | MARKET ↓ |
| 9 | Netherlands | 1633 | 4.0% | -1.6% | 5.6% | 🟡 Medium Avg potential opponent Elo: 1569 Could face Germany and USA before the Final | €985M | — |
| 10 | Norway | 1617 | 3.5% | +0.3% | 3.2% | — | €640M | — |
| 11 | Belgium | 1576 | 1.9% | no data | — | — | €707M | — |
| 12 | Switzerland | 1560 | 1.7% | no data | — | 🟢 Easy Avg potential opponent Elo: 1561 Avoids Germany and South Africa until the Final — favorable bracket draw | €393M | — |
| 13 | Senegal | 1559 | 1.5% | no data | — | — | €538M | — |
| 14 | Colombia | 1539 | 1.2% | -1.0% | 2.2% | — | €386M | — |
| 15 | Mexico | 1542 | 1.1% | -1.1% | 2.2% | 🟢 Easy Avg potential opponent Elo: 1563 Avoids Germany and South Africa until the Final — favorable bracket draw | €242M | — |
| 16 | Japan | 1542 | 1.1% | -1.1% | 2.2% | 🟢 Easy Avg potential opponent Elo: 1563 Avoids Germany and South Africa until the Final — favorable bracket draw | €341M | — |
| 17 | Ivory Coast | 1537 | 1.1% | no data | — | 🟢 Easy Avg potential opponent Elo: 1563 Avoids Germany and South Africa until the Final — favorable bracket draw | — | — |
| 18 | Algeria | 1539 | 0.8% | no data | — | — | €316M | — |
| 19 | Ecuador | 1509 | 0.7% | no data | — | — | €399M | — |
| 20 | Croatia | 1530 | 0.7% | no data | — | — | €429M | — |
| 21 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1485 | 0.5% | no data | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | Egypt | 1491 | 0.5% | no data | — | — | €126M | — |
GOLDEN BOOT
Top scorers · Group stage
Lionel Messi
Argentina
2G
Vinícius Júnior
Brazil
3G
Kylian Mbappé
France
2G
Erling Haaland
Norway
2G
Ousmane Dembélé
France
2G
HOT & COLD
Which teams are exceeding expectations and which are struggling
Based on results vs pre-tournament expectations — a team climbing means they're outperforming what the model predicted
Heating Up 🔥
Cooling Down 🧊
GOAL TIMING
When goals are scored · 184 total
Peak period
76-90'
BIGGEST UPSETS SO FAR
Ranked by Elo surprise score
Ecuador vs Germany
Ecuador win
Turkey vs Paraguay
Paraguay win
Australia vs Turkey
Australia win
South Africa vs South Korea
South Africa win
USA vs Australia
USA win
Ghana vs Panama
Ghana win
USA vs Paraguay
USA win
Sweden vs Tunisia
Sweden win
Surprise score = probability the upset winner was expected to lose
WHO HAS HAD THE TOUGHEST PATH
Average opponent Elo rating faced so far
Higher Elo = stronger opponents faced · bars scaled relative to this group
DOES JERSEY COLOR PREDICT THE WINNER?
World Cup wins by primary kit color · all tournaments
No team in a green, orange, or maroon kit has ever won the World Cup.
SMALLEST NATIONS STILL WITH A SHOT
Population vs tournament win probability
Croatia
3.9M people — roughly the population of Los Angeles
0.7%
win prob
Norway
5.5M people — fewer people than the greater Bay Area
3.5%
win prob
Switzerland
8.7M people — about the size of New York City metro
1.7%
win prob
Portugal
10.3M people — smaller than the state of Ohio
4.1%
win prob
Belgium
11.6M people — about the size of the greater LA metro
1.9%
win prob
Uruguay won in 1930 and 1950 with just 1.7M people — small nations have done it before.
FUN FACTS
Historical patterns from World Cup data since 1930
Home teams win 45.3% of WC matches
2.83 goals per game across all World Cups
Teams in yellow jerseys have won 5 World Cups
Brazil x5
Every WC since 1978 won by South America or Europe — 0 exceptions
Uruguay won 1930 and 1950 with a population of just 1.7 million